The 15 January estimated payment: do you have to make it, and how much

Estimated tax for 2026 is paid in four instalments, and the last one falls in the following year. It covers September to December. The IRS and New York use the same four dates:

Federally, you generally have to pay estimated tax for 2026 if you expect to owe at least $1,000 after subtracting withholding and refundable credits, and you expect withholding and credits to come to less than the safe harbor.

New York sets its own floor. Under the 2026 instructions for Form IT-2105 you generally have to pay if you expect to owe at least $300 of New York State, New York City or Yonkers tax after withholding and credits.

A job in the household changes this, because its withholding counts toward the total. Somebody whose employer already withholds enough may owe nothing in January.

For 2026, the federal penalty is avoided if what you paid through withholding and estimated tax reaches the smaller of two figures:

New York uses the same shape for 2026: 90% of the tax on the 2026 return, or 100% of the tax on the 2025 return. The second figure becomes 110% if the New York adjusted gross income on the 2025 return was more than $150,000, or $75,000 if married filing separately for 2026.

Farmers and fishermen have their own rules in both systems.

By 15 January the four payments together should reach the required amount. If the first three fell short, the January payment is the last chance to stop the penalty growing on the shortfall.

You do not have to make the federal payment due 15 January 2027 if you file your 2026 return by 1 February 2027 and pay the entire balance with it. New York’s version is the same idea with a different date: file your 2026 New York return on or before 31 January 2027 and pay the full balance.

The dates differ by a day because 31 January 2027 is a Sunday. The IRS printed 1 February on the 2026 Form 1040-ES; New York’s instructions say 31 January. Filing by Friday 29 January covers both.

It is hard to manage in practice, because the W-2s and 1099s a return needs are themselves due by 1 February 2027.

The safe harbors assume income arrived evenly. If most of yours came late in the year, the annualized income installment method lets the required payments follow the income instead, which can reduce or remove a penalty on the earlier quarters.

It is claimed on Form 2210 with Schedule AI. The 2026 Form 1040-ES says to file Form 2210, including Schedule AI, with your return if you use the method, even if no penalty is owed. New York allows the same approach.

Federally, the 2026 Form 1040-ES lists these ways to pay:

The federal penalty is charged on each underpayment for the number of days it stays unpaid. It behaves like interest, so a late payment costs less than no payment, and a partial one less than nothing.

If you pay by mail, the 2026 instructions warn that the postmark is the date the Postal Service processes the envelope, which may be later than the day you posted it. Paying online removes the question.

The IRS can waive the penalty if a casualty, disaster or other unusual circumstance made paying unfair to require, or if you retired after reaching 62 or became disabled in the year or the year before and the shortfall had a reasonable cause.